Benfica U19 2-2 Atletico Madrid U19 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA - Youth League, 2 Oct 2024

📅02/10/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.9
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
1.97
Over
42%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.68
No
57%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1
30%
3.65
2-3
41%
1.81
4-5
21%
3.31
6+
8%
11.85
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.65 — our 30% vs market 22.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
25%
X/2
16%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
49%
-3.7pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.1pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+3.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
47%
+10.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
53%
-10.7pp
43%
BTTS Yes
56%
-12.2pp
57%
BTTS No
44%
+12.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica U19 EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Madrid U19 EU Bookmakers 30%
-16% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +36% / +36%
1.35/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.61/0.95
-18% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +66%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
337 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
Crosses 8.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica U19
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Atletico Madrid U19
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
62% Ball Possession 38%
10 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
08.12.2015 Benfica U19 Benfica U19 1-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid U19 Atletico Madrid U19 UEGL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica U19
2-2
AWAY Atletico Madrid U19
36% Ball Possession 64%
6 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Benfica U19 vs Atletico Madrid U19
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica U19 and Atletico Madrid U19 couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2.

Our pre-match lean was Benfica U19 at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Benfica U19 had 36% of the ball to Atletico Madrid U19's 64%, shots finished 6-9.

What was the final score of Benfica U19 vs Atletico Madrid U19?

Benfica U19 2-2 Atletico Madrid U19 in the UEFA - Youth League on 02/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica U19 vs Atletico Madrid U19?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica U19 win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Benfica U19 45%, draw 25%, Atletico Madrid U19 30%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Benfica U19) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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