URA 1-1 NEC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 2 Oct 2025

URA
1-1 HT 0-1
NEC
📅02/10/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.38
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
33%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.52
Over 2.5
34%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.16
No
60%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
41%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
9%
X/2
13%
X/X
21%
2/1
8%
2/2
16%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
39%
-1.7pp
29%
Draw
30%
-0.3pp
33%
Away Win
31%
+2.1pp
66%
Under 2.5
62%
+4.4pp
34%
Over 2.5
38%
-4.4pp
40%
BTTS Yes
42%
-1.7pp
60%
BTTS No
58%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME URA EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY NEC EU Bookmakers 34%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.25/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.52/1.05
+19% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -43% / -8%
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
298 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME URA
1W-1D-0L
AWAY NEC
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
46% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.12.2024 URA URA 1-1 HT 1-0 NEC NEC UGA
16.04.2024 URA URA 2-0 HT 1-0 NEC NEC UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME URA
1-1
AWAY NEC
41% Ball Possession 59%
6 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH URA vs NEC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

URA and NEC couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 29% / 33% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (66%) landed while no to both teams scoring (60%) missed.

On the day, URA had 41% of the ball to NEC's 59%, shots finished 6-15.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, URA had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for URA and 0.50 for NEC.

What was the final score of URA vs NEC?

URA 1-1 NEC in the Uganda - Premier League on 02/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for URA vs NEC?

Before kick-off our model rated a URA win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split URA 37%, draw 29%, NEC 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (URA), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (URA) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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