Ternana 4-1 SPAL — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 2 Nov 2024

Ternana
4-1 HT 0-1
SPAL
📅02/11/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.72
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
24%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.67
Over 2.5
49%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.03
No
51%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.71
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
23%
4.31
6+ Goals
11%
21.85
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
23%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
54%
-3.5pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.3pp
24%
Away Win
20%
+3.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
56%
-5.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
44%
+5.6pp
49%
BTTS Yes
45%
+3.8pp
51%
BTTS No
55%
-3.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ternana EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY SPAL EU Bookmakers 23%
-4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +2%
1.78/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.71
+13% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -22%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
304 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ternana
2W-2D-2L
AWAY SPAL
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.31 xG 1.59
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
299 Passes 330
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
24 Box Touches 19
24 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 2
01.04.2023 SPAL SPAL 1-1 HT 1-0 Ternana Ternana İTB
05.11.2022 Ternana Ternana 0-0 HT 0-0 SPAL SPAL İTB
22.02.2022 SPAL SPAL 5-1 HT 2-0 Ternana Ternana İTB
26.09.2021 Ternana Ternana 1-0 HT 1-0 SPAL SPAL İTB
13.05.2017 Ternana Ternana 2-1 HT 2-1 SPAL SPAL İTB
24.12.2016 SPAL SPAL 4-0 HT 2-0 Ternana Ternana İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ternana
4-1
AWAY SPAL
61% Ball Possession 39%
22 Total Shots 6
12 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 4
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ternana vs SPAL
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ternana cruised past SPAL 4-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ternana as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Ternana had 61% of the ball to SPAL's 39%, shots finished 22-6.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Ternana and 1.83 for SPAL.

What was the final score of Ternana vs SPAL?

Ternana 4-1 SPAL in the Italy - Serie C on 02/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ternana vs SPAL?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ternana win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Ternana 51%, draw 25%, SPAL 24%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ternana) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ternana) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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