Santos 3-0 Vila Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 2 Nov 2024

📅02/11/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.42
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
18%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.27
No
59%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.08
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.8
6+ Goals
8%
16.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 32% vs market 26.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
4%
X/X
13%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
67%
-11.2pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.4pp
18%
Away Win
12%
+6.8pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.5pp
41%
BTTS Yes
40%
+1.1pp
59%
BTTS No
60%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Santos EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Vila Nova EU Bookmakers 14%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -3%
1.24/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.39
+7% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +6%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
377 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 74%
20.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.7
25.1 Crosses 17.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Santos
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Vila Nova
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.53 xG 0.56
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 7
374 Passes 216
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
21 Box Touches 9
28 Crosses 25
0 Yellow Cards 1
19.07.2024 Vila Nova Vila Nova 1-1 HT 0-0 Santos Santos BR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Santos
3-0
AWAY Vila Nova
1.84 xG 0.36
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 2
327 Passes 223
83% Pass Accuracy 79%
27 Box Touches 13
35 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Santos vs Vila Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Santos cruised past Vila Nova 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Santos as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (59%) landed while under 2.5 goals (57%) missed.

On the day, Santos had 59% of the ball to Vila Nova's 41%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.84 to 0.36.

What was the final score of Santos vs Vila Nova?

Santos 3-0 Vila Nova in the Brazil - Serie B on 02/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Santos vs Vila Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Santos win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Santos 56%, draw 26%, Vila Nova 18%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Santos), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Santos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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