Karvina vs Sparta Prag Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Karvina v Sparta Prag — Team-Based Signals
Karvina vs Sparta Prag Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-1
HT 2-0
Karvina
ÇEK
1-2
HT 0-0
Sparta Prag
ÇEK
2-0
HT 1-0
Karvina
ÇEK
Karvina 2-1 Sparta Prag — Actual Match Statistics
Karvina nicked a narrow win over Sparta Prag 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Sparta Prag at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Karvina had 50% of the ball to Sparta Prag's 50%, shots finished 20-14, expected goals 2.20 to 0.88 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Karvina's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sparta Prag led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Karvina and 2.83 for Sparta Prag.
What was the final score of Karvina vs Sparta Prag?
Karvina 2-1 Sparta Prag in the Czech Republic - Czech Liga on 02/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Karvina vs Sparta Prag?
Before kick-off our model rated an Sparta Prag win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Karvina 25%, draw 20%, Sparta Prag 55%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.