Karvina 2-3 Sparta Prag — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Czech Republic - Czech Liga, 15 Feb 2025

📅15/02/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
5.34
Draw
26%
4.19
Away
50%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.15
Over 2.5
48%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.9
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
2.9
6+ Goals
9%
8.89
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.9 — our 26% vs market 19.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
10%
1/X
9%
X/1
7%
X/2
19%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
21%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
16%
+8.0pp
26%
Draw
20%
+5.6pp
50%
Away Win
64%
-13.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
43%
+9.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
57%
-9.3pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.0pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Karvina EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Sparta Prag EU Bookmakers 69%
-8% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +14%
0.70/1.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.28/0.85
-8% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / -1%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
353 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 380 · 77%
21.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.1
20.4 Crosses 20.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Karvina
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Sparta Prag
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
1.20 xG 2.25
41% Ball Possession 59%
7 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
248 Passes 326
73% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 36
13 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 1
03.12.2024 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag 4-1 HT 3-1 Karvina Karvina ÇEK
10.02.2024 Karvina Karvina 0-3 HT 0-1 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag ÇEK
27.08.2023 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag 3-1 HT 2-0 Karvina Karvina ÇEK
04.12.2021 Karvina Karvina 1-2 HT 0-0 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag ÇEK
07.08.2021 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag 2-0 HT 1-0 Karvina Karvina ÇEK
14.02.2021 Sparta Prag Sparta Prag 4-3 HT 3-2 Karvina Karvina ÇEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Karvina
2-3
AWAY Sparta Prag
1.75 xG 0.87
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
249 Passes 319
70% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Karvina vs Sparta Prag
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sparta Prag edged past Karvina 3-2 away from home. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sparta Prag as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Karvina had 45% of the ball to Sparta Prag's 55%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.75 to 0.87 — the balance of chances actually favoured Karvina.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sparta Prag led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Karvina and 3.00 for Sparta Prag.

What was the final score of Karvina vs Sparta Prag?

Karvina 2-3 Sparta Prag in the Czech Republic - Czech Liga on 15/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Karvina vs Sparta Prag?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sparta Prag win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Karvina 24%, draw 26%, Sparta Prag 50%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sparta Prag), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sparta Prag) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ÇEK More Czech Republic - Czech Liga
15 Feb 2025
15:30 Sigma Olomouc vs FK Pardubice Analysis →
18:00 Ceske Budejovice vs Jablonec Analysis →
18:00 Slovacko vs Dukla Prag Analysis →