Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Fluminense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 2 Dec 2024

📅02/12/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.19
Draw
28%
2.88
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.48
Over 2.5
37%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.13
No
61%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
38%
2.19
2-3 Goals
38%
1.83
4-5 Goals
16%
5.85
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.33
1/2
10%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.2
X/1
18%
4.62
X/2
12%
6.62
X/X
14%
3.44
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
11%
5.54
2/X
8%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.8pp
28%
Draw
31%
-2.7pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+5.5pp
63%
Under 2.5
64%
-1.1pp
37%
Over 2.5
36%
+1.1pp
39%
BTTS Yes
43%
-3.9pp
61%
BTTS No
57%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Fluminense EU Bookmakers 31%
+3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -9%
1.48/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.44
-11% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
353 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 81%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
22.7 Crosses 15.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Paranaense
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Fluminense
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.86 xG 1.27
34% Ball Possession 66%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
224 Passes 514
74% Pass Accuracy 88%
14 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
23.10.2024 Fluminense Fluminense 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
28.08.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-2 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
22.04.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 2-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
04.09.2022 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
15.05.2022 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
17.10.2021 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 0-1 HT 0-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Paranaense
1-1
AWAY Fluminense
1.14 xG 1.48
29% Ball Possession 71%
16 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
188 Passes 545
76% Pass Accuracy 89%
15 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Paranaense and Fluminense shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 33% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (63%) landed while no to both teams scoring (61%) missed.

On the day, Atletico Paranaense had 29% of the ball to Fluminense's 71%, shots finished 16-15, expected goals 1.14 to 1.48.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fluminense led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.33 for Fluminense.

What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense?

Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Fluminense in the Brazil - Serie A on 02/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Atletico Paranaense 39%, draw 28%, Fluminense 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Atletico Paranaense), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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