Cardiff City 1-5 AFC Wimbledon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Futbol League Cup, 2 Dec 2025

📅02/12/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.33
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
37%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.5
No
46%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
4.35
2-3 Goals
39%
1.87
4-5 Goals
22%
2.8
6+ Goals
12%
7.86
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.52
1/2
6%
24.85
1/X
5%
12.75
X/1
9%
5.92
X/2
13%
6.09
X/X
12%
5.56
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
24.45
2/2
18%
3.67
2/X
7%
12.8
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.45 — our 8% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
39%
-0.3pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.7pp
37%
Away Win
36%
+1.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
62%
-8.8pp
46%
BTTS No
38%
+8.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cardiff City EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 40%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +51% / -5%
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
267 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
Crosses 10.4
Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cardiff City
2W-0D-0L
AWAY AFC Wimbledon
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
1.50 xG 0.60
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
441 Passes 163
85% Pass Accuracy 64%
25 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.08.2025 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 0-1 HT 0-0 Cardiff City Cardiff City İN1
11.08.2015 Cardiff City Cardiff City 1-0 HT 1-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İNLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cardiff City
1-5
AWAY AFC Wimbledon
0.87 xG 1.08
65% Ball Possession 35%
9 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 2
577 Passes 257
88% Pass Accuracy 74%
10 Box Touches 16
5 Crosses 7
POST-MATCH Cardiff City vs AFC Wimbledon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Wimbledon cruised past Cardiff City 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 24% / 37% — and on the day AFC Wimbledon made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Cardiff City had 65% of the ball to AFC Wimbledon's 35%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 0.87 to 1.08.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Cardiff City had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Cardiff City and 0.00 for AFC Wimbledon.

What was the final score of Cardiff City vs AFC Wimbledon?

Cardiff City 1-5 AFC Wimbledon in the England - Futbol League Cup on 02/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cardiff City vs AFC Wimbledon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cardiff City win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Cardiff City 39%, draw 24%, AFC Wimbledon 37%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cardiff City) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cardiff City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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