Celta Vigo 2-1 Real Betis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 3 Jan 2024

📅03/01/2024 · 🕒21:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.09
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.75
Over 2.5
50%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.03
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
3.9
6+ Goals
10%
17.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 27% vs market 27.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.96
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
8%
12.8
X/1
19%
4.68
X/2
11%
6.85
X/X
7%
4.22
2/1
7%
27.5
2/2
12%
5.08
2/X
10%
13.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
44%
+0.9pp
25%
Draw
28%
-2.8pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+1.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
53%
-3.6pp
50%
Over 2.5
47%
+3.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.2pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celta Vigo EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Betis EU Bookmakers 32%
-9% / -31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -1%
1.45/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.31
-9% / -20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
346 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 77%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.2
21.4 Crosses 15.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Celta Vigo
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Real Betis
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.46 xG 1.54
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
358 Passes 330
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 3
04.02.2023 Real Betis Real Betis 3-4 HT 2-2 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
02.10.2022 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 1-0 HT 1-0 Real Betis Real Betis İS1
20.03.2022 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 0-0 HT 0-0 Real Betis Real Betis İS1
02.01.2022 Real Betis Real Betis 0-2 HT 0-2 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
22.05.2021 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 2-3 HT 1-0 Real Betis Real Betis İS1
20.01.2021 Real Betis Real Betis 2-1 HT 2-1 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Celta Vigo
2-1
AWAY Real Betis
2.74 xG 1.47
40% Ball Possession 60%
19 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 7
261 Passes 425
79% Pass Accuracy 84%
23 Box Touches 32
19 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Celta Vigo vs Real Betis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celta Vigo squeezed past Real Betis 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Celta Vigo as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Celta Vigo had 40% of the ball to Real Betis's 60%, shots finished 19-14, expected goals 2.74 to 1.47 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Celta Vigo's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Celta Vigo had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Celta Vigo and 1.33 for Real Betis.

What was the final score of Celta Vigo vs Real Betis?

Celta Vigo 2-1 Real Betis in the Spain - Primera Liga on 03/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celta Vigo vs Real Betis?

Before kick-off our model rated a Celta Vigo win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Celta Vigo 45%, draw 25%, Real Betis 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celta Vigo), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Celta Vigo) ✓ BTTS Yes
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