Girona 4-3 Atletico Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 3 Jan 2024

Girona
4-3 HT 3-2
Atletico Madrid
📅03/01/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Girona vs Atletico Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
37%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.5
No
46%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.54
2-3 Goals
38%
1.9
4-5 Goals
25%
2.92
6+ Goals
11%
8.49
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.57
1/2
6%
25.0
1/X
5%
12.25
X/1
11%
5.89
X/2
15%
5.74
X/X
15%
5.2
2/1
6%
25.5
2/2
16%
3.44
2/X
8%
12.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-2.1pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
37%
Away Win
37%
+0.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
62%
-8.4pp
46%
BTTS No
38%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Girona v Atletico Madrid — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Girona EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 40%
-7% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
1.34/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.47
-9% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -14%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
330 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 79%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.0
20.9 Crosses 15.5
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6

Girona vs Atletico Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Girona
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Atletico Madrid
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.00 xG 1.90
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 6
424 Passes 447
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 31
18 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
13.03.2023 Girona Girona 0-1 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
08.10.2022 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 2-1 HT 1-0 Girona Girona İS1
02.04.2019 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 2-0 HT 0-0 Girona Girona İS1
16.01.2019 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-3 HT 1-1 Girona Girona İSPK
09.01.2019 Girona Girona 1-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İSPK
02.12.2018 Girona Girona 1-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1

Girona 4-3 Atletico Madrid — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Girona
4-3
AWAY Atletico Madrid
2.42 xG 2.35
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 18
9 Shots on Target 12
7 Corners 8
447 Passes 405
90% Pass Accuracy 87%
28 Box Touches 37
21 Crosses 26
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Girona vs Atletico Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Girona edged past Atletico Madrid 4-3. Half-time: 3-2. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 28% / 37% — and on the day Girona made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Girona had 51% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 49%, shots finished 17-18, expected goals 2.42 to 2.35.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Girona and 1.67 for Atletico Madrid.

What was the final score of Girona vs Atletico Madrid?

Girona 4-3 Atletico Madrid in the Spain - Primera Liga on 03/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Girona vs Atletico Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Girona 35%, draw 28%, Atletico Madrid 37%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Atletico Madrid) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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