UD Ibiza 3-2 San Fernando — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division B, 3 Jan 2024

📅03/01/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.47
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
23%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.0
Over 2.5
49%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.38
2-3 Goals
43%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.27
6+ Goals
8%
12.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.38 — our 29% vs market 23.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
21%
X/2
6%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
64%
-7.9pp
21%
Draw
21%
-0.1pp
23%
Away Win
15%
+8.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
46%
+4.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.3pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UD Ibiza EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY San Fernando EU Bookmakers 18%
+8% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -15%
2.27/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.65
+34% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / -5%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
382 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UD Ibiza
3-2
AWAY San Fernando
62% Ball Possession 38%
14 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 0
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH UD Ibiza vs San Fernando
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UD Ibiza nicked a narrow win over San Fernando 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had UD Ibiza as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, UD Ibiza had 62% of the ball to San Fernando's 38%, shots finished 14-5.

What was the final score of UD Ibiza vs San Fernando?

UD Ibiza 3-2 San Fernando in the Spain - 2nd Division B on 03/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UD Ibiza vs San Fernando?

Before kick-off our model rated a UD Ibiza win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split UD Ibiza 56%, draw 21%, San Fernando 23%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (UD Ibiza) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (UD Ibiza) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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