Ashdod 1-4 Maccabi Tel Aviv — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Israel - Ligat HaAl, 3 Jan 2024

📅03/01/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
14%
7.18
Draw
27%
4.81
Away
59%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.23
Over 2.5
54%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.99
No
50%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.07
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
28%
2.9
6+ Goals
10%
8.87
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
4%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
7%
X/2
21%
X/X
7%
2/1
3%
2/2
31%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Maccabi Tel Aviv win — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
📶 Pattern strength Away Win Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
14%
Home Win
11%
+3.2pp
27%
Draw
18%
+9.0pp
59%
Away Win
71%
-12.2pp
46%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
46%
+4.1pp
50%
BTTS No
54%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ashdod EU Bookmakers 14%
Head to Head
AWAY Maccabi Tel Aviv EU Bookmakers 75%
-26% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
0.16/1.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.77/0.52
+19% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +54% / +57%
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 7
237 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 437 · 80%
6.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 36.7
13.0 Crosses 14.9
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ashdod
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.00
0.56 xG 1.36
31% Ball Possession 69%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 9
192 Passes 497
77% Pass Accuracy 90%
11 Box Touches 37
8 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 1
27.08.2023 Maccabi Tel Aviv Maccabi Tel Aviv 4-1 HT 0-0 Ashdod Ashdod İSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ashdod
1-4
AWAY Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.36 xG 1.83
36% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 21
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 7
204 Passes 401
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
9 Box Touches 31
9 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ashdod vs Maccabi Tel Aviv
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Maccabi Tel Aviv ran out comfortable winners over Ashdod 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Maccabi Tel Aviv as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Ashdod had 36% of the ball to Maccabi Tel Aviv's 64%, shots finished 12-21, expected goals 1.36 to 1.83.

What was the final score of Ashdod vs Maccabi Tel Aviv?

Ashdod 1-4 Maccabi Tel Aviv in the Israel - Ligat HaAl on 03/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ashdod vs Maccabi Tel Aviv?

Before kick-off our model rated an Maccabi Tel Aviv win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Ashdod 14%, draw 27%, Maccabi Tel Aviv 59%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Maccabi Tel Aviv), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Maccabi Tel Aviv) ✓ Over 2.5
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