Sassuolo 1-1 Parma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 3 Jan 2026

Sassuolo
1-1 HT 1-1
Parma
📅03/01/2026 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2025/2026

Sassuolo vs Parma Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
54%
1.71
Over
46%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.82
No
47%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
31%
2.85
2-3
39%
1.76
4-5
21%
3.94
6+
9%
18.05
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.85 — our 31% vs market 28.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.77
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
8%
13.0
X/1
17%
4.72
X/2
10%
7.84
X/X
14%
4.27
2/1
8%
27.0
2/2
10%
6.12
2/X
7%
14.1
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to ✓ / ✗. Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.

Sassuolo v Parma — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik model signals — not real match figures
HOME Sassuolo The Market 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Parma The Market 29%
Weak Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Average
Weak Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Strong
1.38 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 1.13
1.37 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 1.33
Average Attackvs comparable teams Average
Weak Defensevs comparable teams Average
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
322 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 326 · 78%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
18.5 Crosses 13.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.8

Sassuolo vs Parma Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sassuolo
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Parma
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.48 xG 1.04
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
548 Passes 211
88% Pass Accuracy 72%
30 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
02.08.2023 Parma Parma 1-0 HT 0-0 Sassuolo Sassuolo HAZ
16.05.2021 Parma Parma 1-3 HT 1-1 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
17.01.2021 Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-1 HT 0-1 Parma Parma İTA
16.02.2020 Sassuolo Sassuolo 0-1 HT 0-1 Parma Parma İTA
25.09.2019 Parma Parma 1-0 HT 0-0 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
14.04.2019 Sassuolo Sassuolo 0-0 HT 0-0 Parma Parma İTA

Sassuolo 1-1 Parma — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sassuolo
1-1
AWAY Parma
0.78 xG 1.20
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
446 Passes 381
89% Pass Accuracy 85%
26 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
REVIEW Sassuolo vs Parma
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Sassuolo and Parma finished all square at 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Sassuolo at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. Small consolation: at 1.96 (roughly 51%) the price was further off than we were.

Neither goals market gave much away — over 2.5 sat at 46% and both teams to score at 53%. The market went further still — the BTTS-no price closed at 1.88, about 53%.

By the numbers, Sassuolo had 53% of the ball to Parma's 47%, shots finished 11-16, expected goals 0.78 to 1.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Parma led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Sassuolo and 0.83 for Parma.

Sassuolo vs Parma Result & Final Score

Sassuolo 1-1 Parma in the Italy - Serie A on 03/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Sassuolo vs Parma Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Sassuolo win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Sassuolo 43%, draw 30%, Parma 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sassuolo) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sassuolo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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