Atalanta 1-0 Roma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 3 Jan 2026

📅03/01/2026 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.04
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
56%
1.67
Over
44%
2.02
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.84
No
48%
1.84
Total Goals
0-1
30%
2.68
2-3
41%
1.76
4-5
20%
4.21
6+
9%
20.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.24
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
10%
12.7
X/1
12%
5.1
X/2
10%
6.91
X/X
13%
3.97
2/1
6%
29.5
2/2
13%
5.21
2/X
7%
13.35
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik model signals — not real match figures
HOME Atalanta The Market 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma The Market 32%
Average Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Weak
Average Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Average
1.52 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 1.19
1.15 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 1.65
Average Attackvs comparable teams Average
Weak Defensevs comparable teams Weak
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
342 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 342 · 81%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
20.8 Crosses 16.8
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atalanta
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Roma
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.38 xG 1.32
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
343 Passes 373
79% Pass Accuracy 80%
22 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 1
12.05.2025 Atalanta Atalanta 2-1 HT 1-1 Roma Roma İTA
02.12.2024 Roma Roma 0-2 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
12.05.2024 Atalanta Atalanta 2-1 HT 2-0 Roma Roma İTA
07.01.2024 Roma Roma 1-1 HT 1-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
24.04.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 3-1 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
18.09.2022 Roma Roma 0-1 HT 0-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atalanta
1-0
AWAY Roma
1.88 xG 0.78
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
296 Passes 376
77% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 27
13 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
REVIEW Atalanta vs Roma
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Atalanta squeezed past Roma 1-0.

From a near-even 40% / 29% / 31% read, it was Atalanta who turned the coin-flip their way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

The match data tells the story: Atalanta had 45% of the ball to Roma's 55%, shots finished 13-10, expected goals 1.88 to 0.78.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atalanta had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Atalanta and 0.67 for Roma.

Atalanta vs Roma Result & Final Score

Atalanta 1-0 Roma in the Italy - Serie A on 03/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Atalanta vs Roma Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Atalanta 40%, draw 29%, Roma 31%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atalanta), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atalanta) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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