Atalanta vs Roma Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Atalanta v Roma — Team-Based Signals
Atalanta vs Roma Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-1
HT 1-0
Roma
İTA
0-1
HT 0-1
Atalanta
İTA
1-0
HT 1-0
Atalanta
İTA
1-4
HT 1-2
Roma
İTA
1-1
HT 0-1
Atalanta
İTA
Atalanta 2-1 Roma — Actual Match Statistics
Atalanta squeezed past Roma 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atalanta as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (57%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Atalanta had 58% of the ball to Roma's 42%, shots finished 24-9, expected goals 2.74 to 1.20 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Atalanta's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Atalanta and 1.33 for Roma.
What was the final score of Atalanta vs Roma?
Atalanta 2-1 Roma in the Italy - Serie A on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Atalanta vs Roma?
Before kick-off our model rated a Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Atalanta 43%, draw 28%, Roma 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atalanta), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.