Genoa vs Sassuolo Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Genoa v Sassuolo — Team-Based Signals
Genoa vs Sassuolo Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-2
HT 1-0
Genoa
İTA
1-1
HT 0-1
Genoa
İTA
2-2
HT 1-2
Sassuolo
İTA
1-2
HT 0-1
Sassuolo
İTA
2-1
HT 0-0
Genoa
İTA
5-0
HT 2-0
Genoa
İTA
Genoa 2-1 Sassuolo — Actual Match Statistics
Genoa edged past Sassuolo 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Genoa as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Genoa had 57% of the ball to Sassuolo's 43%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 0.89 to 1.71 — the balance of chances actually favoured Sassuolo.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sassuolo led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Genoa and 2.17 for Sassuolo.
What was the final score of Genoa vs Sassuolo?
Genoa 2-1 Sassuolo in the Italy - Serie A on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Genoa vs Sassuolo?
Before kick-off our model rated a Genoa win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Genoa 42%, draw 26%, Sassuolo 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Genoa) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.