Genoa 2-1 Sassuolo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 12 May 2024

📅12/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
32%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
13%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.3pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.5pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+1.2pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.0pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genoa EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Sassuolo EU Bookmakers 34%
+3% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -6%
1.49/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.23
+19% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -12%
45% Ball Possession 55%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
281 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 390 · 81%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.5
22.6 Crosses 19.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genoa
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Sassuolo
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.07 xG 2.00
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
290 Passes 486
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 25
20 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
22.12.2023 Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-2 HT 1-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
06.01.2022 Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-1 HT 0-1 Genoa Genoa İTA
17.10.2021 Genoa Genoa 2-2 HT 1-2 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
09.05.2021 Genoa Genoa 1-2 HT 0-1 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
06.01.2021 Sassuolo Sassuolo 2-1 HT 0-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
29.07.2020 Sassuolo Sassuolo 5-0 HT 2-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Genoa
2-1
AWAY Sassuolo
0.89 xG 1.71
57% Ball Possession 43%
8 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
414 Passes 275
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
13 Box Touches 32
17 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Genoa vs Sassuolo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Genoa edged past Sassuolo 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Genoa as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Genoa had 57% of the ball to Sassuolo's 43%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 0.89 to 1.71 — the balance of chances actually favoured Sassuolo.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sassuolo led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Genoa and 2.17 for Sassuolo.

What was the final score of Genoa vs Sassuolo?

Genoa 2-1 Sassuolo in the Italy - Serie A on 12/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genoa vs Sassuolo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Genoa win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Genoa 42%, draw 26%, Sassuolo 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Genoa) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Genoa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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