Roma 1-1 Atalanta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 7 Jan 2024

Roma
1-1 HT 1-1
Atalanta
📅07/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Roma vs Atalanta Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.18
Draw
26%
3.04
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.62
Over 2.5
38%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.9
No
59%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.6
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.59
6+ Goals
8%
24.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.16
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
9%
13.15
X/1
19%
4.67
X/2
9%
6.53
X/X
11%
3.83
2/1
7%
30.5
2/2
16%
5.09
2/X
6%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+2.2pp
26%
Draw
30%
-3.5pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+1.3pp
62%
Under 2.5
58%
+4.3pp
38%
Over 2.5
42%
-4.3pp
41%
BTTS Yes
49%
-7.8pp
59%
BTTS No
51%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Roma v Atalanta — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roma EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Atalanta EU Bookmakers 32%
+2% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -18%
1.43/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.37
+0% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -11%
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
302 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 79%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
20.4 Crosses 13.0
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.7

Roma vs Atalanta Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roma
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Atalanta
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.45 xG 1.16
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
361 Passes 397
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
19 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
24.04.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 3-1 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
18.09.2022 Roma Roma 0-1 HT 0-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
05.03.2022 Roma Roma 1-0 HT 1-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
18.12.2021 Atalanta Atalanta 1-4 HT 1-2 Roma Roma İTA
22.04.2021 Roma Roma 1-1 HT 0-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
20.12.2020 Atalanta Atalanta 4-1 HT 0-1 Roma Roma İTA

Roma 1-1 Atalanta — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roma
1-1
AWAY Atalanta
2.07 xG 0.74
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
386 Passes 294
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
39 Box Touches 13
23 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Roma vs Atalanta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roma and Atalanta couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Roma at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (62%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, Roma had 55% of the ball to Atalanta's 45%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 2.07 to 0.74.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atalanta led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Roma and 1.67 for Atalanta.

What was the final score of Roma vs Atalanta?

Roma 1-1 Atalanta in the Italy - Serie A on 07/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roma vs Atalanta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Roma 44%, draw 26%, Atalanta 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Roma), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Roma) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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