Empoli 0-3 Milan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 7 Jan 2024

Empoli
0-3 HT 0-2
Milan
📅07/01/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Empoli vs Milan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.13
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
49%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.89
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
22%
3.2
6+ Goals
11%
10.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.89 — our 26% vs market 20.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
7.47
1/2
6%
22.15
1/X
6%
15.45
X/1
9%
9.93
X/2
9%
3.95
X/X
12%
5.46
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
33%
2.09
2/X
6%
14.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
21%
+6.4pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.3pp
49%
Away Win
55%
-6.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.1pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Empoli v Milan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Empoli EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Milan EU Bookmakers 60%
-1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -3%
1.20/2.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/1.12
+18% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -1%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
297 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 439 · 84%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.4
19.0 Crosses 17.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1

Empoli vs Milan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Empoli
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Milan
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.83 xG 1.50
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
324 Passes 438
80% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 32
14 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
07.04.2023 Milan Milan 0-0 HT 0-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
01.10.2022 Empoli Empoli 1-3 HT 0-0 Milan Milan İTA
12.03.2022 Milan Milan 1-0 HT 1-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
22.12.2021 Empoli Empoli 2-4 HT 1-2 Milan Milan İTA
22.02.2019 Milan Milan 3-0 HT 0-0 Empoli Empoli İTA
27.09.2018 Empoli Empoli 1-1 HT 0-1 Milan Milan İTA

Empoli 0-3 Milan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Empoli
0-3
AWAY Milan
0.90 xG 1.69
35% Ball Possession 65%
17 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
276 Passes 560
86% Pass Accuracy 90%
22 Box Touches 30
19 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Empoli vs Milan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Milan cruised past Empoli 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Milan as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Empoli had 35% of the ball to Milan's 65%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 0.90 to 1.69.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Milan led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Empoli and 2.00 for Milan.

What was the final score of Empoli vs Milan?

Empoli 0-3 Milan in the Italy - Serie A on 07/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Empoli vs Milan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Milan win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Empoli 27%, draw 24%, Milan 49%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Milan), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Milan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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