Salernitana 1-2 Juventus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 7 Jan 2024

📅07/01/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
20%
5.34
Draw
29%
3.72
Away
51%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.75
Over 2.5
49%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.09
No
49%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.93
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
4.02
6+ Goals
9%
18.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
11.25
1/2
7%
24.7
1/X EV+ ✗
9%
19.8
X/1
9%
13.05
X/2
15%
3.42
X/X
12%
5.46
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
29%
1.82
2/X
9%
18.7
Value flag · 1/X at 19.8 — our 9% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
20%
Home Win
16%
+3.9pp
30%
Draw
24%
+5.7pp
51%
Away Win
60%
-9.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
53%
-2.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
47%
+2.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
44%
+6.7pp
49%
BTTS No
56%
-6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Salernitana EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Juventus EU Bookmakers 64%
+14% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +5%
1.10/1.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/1.03
+37% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -16%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
277 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 414 · 81%
15.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.6
15.9 Crosses 20.0
2.9 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Salernitana
0W-1D-4L
AWAY Juventus
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.80 xG 2.25
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
336 Passes 535
82% Pass Accuracy 89%
11 Box Touches 33
15 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.01.2024 Juventus Juventus 6-1 HT 2-1 Salernitana Salernitana İTK
07.02.2023 Salernitana Salernitana 0-3 HT 0-2 Juventus Juventus İTA
11.09.2022 Juventus Juventus 2-2 HT 0-2 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
20.03.2022 Juventus Juventus 2-0 HT 2-0 Salernitana Salernitana İTA
30.11.2021 Salernitana Salernitana 0-2 HT 0-1 Juventus Juventus İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Salernitana
1-2
AWAY Juventus
0.76 xG 2.10
29% Ball Possession 71%
8 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 8
182 Passes 539
72% Pass Accuracy 89%
16 Box Touches 41
11 Crosses 34
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Salernitana vs Juventus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Juventus squeezed past Salernitana 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Juventus as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Salernitana had 29% of the ball to Juventus's 71%, shots finished 8-18, expected goals 0.76 to 2.10 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Juventus's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Juventus led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Salernitana and 3.00 for Juventus.

What was the final score of Salernitana vs Juventus?

Salernitana 1-2 Juventus in the Italy - Serie A on 07/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Salernitana vs Juventus?

Before kick-off our model rated an Juventus win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Salernitana 20%, draw 30%, Juventus 51%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Juventus), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Juventus) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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