Atalanta vs Roma Prediction — Model Probabilities
Atalanta v Roma — Team-Based Signals
Atalanta vs Roma Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Atalanta 2-1 Roma — Actual Match Statistics
Atalanta found just enough to beat Roma 2-1. It stood 1-1 at the interval — everything that mattered happened after the restart.
We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 35% — and on the day Atalanta made the difference.
No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 51%, coin-flips both. If anything the market was more convinced: the BTTS-yes price stood at 1.59, roughly 63%.
On the day, Atalanta had 57% of the ball to Roma's 43%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 2.41 to 0.78 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Atalanta's control.
The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atalanta had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Atalanta and 0.67 for Roma.
Atalanta vs Roma Result & Final Score
Atalanta 2-1 Roma in the Italy - Serie A on 12/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
Atalanta vs Roma Prediction vs Result
Before kick-off our model rated a Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Atalanta 38%, draw 27%, Roma 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atalanta), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.