Atalanta 2-1 Roma — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 12 May 2025

📅12/05/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
35%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
52%
2.07
Over
48%
1.72
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.59
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1
28%
3.9
2-3
40%
1.84
4-5
23%
3.07
6+
9%
9.86
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.9 — our 28% vs market 20.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.68
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
9%
12.3
X/1
12%
5.01
X/2
14%
7.92
X/X
10%
5.07
2/1
10%
23.3
2/2
14%
5.52
2/X
8%
13.15
STRENGTH — green bars inside a box show the pattern support behind that selection, from Good · Strong · Very strong to Great — the deeper the historical record, the fuller the bar; informational, not a sized bet.
EV — the best model-vs-price gap in that group: the market pays more than our probability implies. After full time the tag settles to / . Informational, not a validated tip — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik model signals — not real match figures
HOME Atalanta The Market 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Roma The Market 30%
Average Season vs Marketall history · vs bookmaker expectation Weak
Average Recent Form vs Marketlatest matches · vs bookmaker expectation Bad
1.53 Expected Goals Scoredper match · higher is better 1.01
1.05 Expected Goals Concededper match · lower is better 1.72
Strong Attackvs comparable teams Average
Weak Defensevs comparable teams Weak
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
390 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 349 · 81%
27.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
19.9 Crosses 15.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atalanta
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Roma
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.08 xG 1.46
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
365 Passes 368
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
21 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
02.12.2024 Roma Roma 0-2 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
12.05.2024 Atalanta Atalanta 2-1 HT 2-0 Roma Roma İTA
07.01.2024 Roma Roma 1-1 HT 1-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
24.04.2023 Atalanta Atalanta 3-1 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
18.09.2022 Roma Roma 0-1 HT 0-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
05.03.2022 Roma Roma 1-0 HT 1-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atalanta
2-1
AWAY Roma
2.41 xG 0.78
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 7
378 Passes 260
82% Pass Accuracy 74%
29 Box Touches 13
27 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 0
REVIEW Atalanta vs Roma
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Atalanta found just enough to beat Roma 2-1. It stood 1-1 at the interval — everything that mattered happened after the restart.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 35% — and on the day Atalanta made the difference.

No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 51%, coin-flips both. If anything the market was more convinced: the BTTS-yes price stood at 1.59, roughly 63%.

On the day, Atalanta had 57% of the ball to Roma's 43%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 2.41 to 0.78 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Atalanta's control.

The head-to-head backdrop: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atalanta had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Atalanta and 0.67 for Roma.

Atalanta vs Roma Result & Final Score

Atalanta 2-1 Roma in the Italy - Serie A on 12/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Atalanta vs Roma Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Atalanta 38%, draw 27%, Roma 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atalanta), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atalanta) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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