Madura United 0-1 Persebaya Surabaya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Indonesia League 1, 3 Jan 2026

📅03/01/2026 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.47
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
38%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.78
Over 2.5
40%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
25%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
6%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-1.9pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.3pp
38%
Away Win
34%
+3.2pp
60%
Under 2.5
52%
+8.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
48%
-8.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.9pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+4.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Madura United EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Persebaya Surabaya EU Bookmakers 38%
-9% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +11%
1.23/1.39 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.32/1.21
-1% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +6%
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
302 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Madura United
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Persebaya Surabaya
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
334 Passes 377
84% Pass Accuracy 87%
20.04.2025 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 HT 0-0 Madura United Madura United ENDL1
02.12.2024 Madura United Madura United 1-2 HT 0-1 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
13.03.2024 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 0-0 HT 0-0 Madura United Madura United ENDL1
29.01.2023 Madura United Madura United 0-2 HT 0-0 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
14.08.2022 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 2-2 HT 1-1 Madura United Madura United ENDL1
28.02.2022 Madura United Madura United 1-2 HT 1-1 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Madura United
0-1
AWAY Persebaya Surabaya
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 9
3 Corners 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Madura United vs Persebaya Surabaya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Persebaya Surabaya squeezed past Madura United 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 27% / 38%) promised a tight game; Persebaya Surabaya found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Madura United had 40% of the ball to Persebaya Surabaya's 60%, shots finished 10-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Persebaya Surabaya led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Madura United and 1.50 for Persebaya Surabaya.

What was the final score of Madura United vs Persebaya Surabaya?

Madura United 0-1 Persebaya Surabaya in the Indonesia League 1 on 03/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Madura United vs Persebaya Surabaya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Persebaya Surabaya win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Madura United 35%, draw 27%, Persebaya Surabaya 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Persebaya Surabaya), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Persebaya Surabaya) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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