Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 Madura United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Indonesia League 1, 20 Apr 2025

📅20/04/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.66
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
25%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
22%
X/2
10%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
56%
-4.4pp
24%
Draw
24%
-0.4pp
25%
Away Win
20%
+4.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.5pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Persebaya Surabaya EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Madura United EU Bookmakers 23%
+2% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / -6%
1.72/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.80
+6% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -18%
54% Ball Possession 46%
8 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
319 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Persebaya Surabaya
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Madura United
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
51% Ball Possession 49%
7 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
377 Passes 334
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
02.12.2024 Madura United Madura United 1-2 HT 0-1 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
13.03.2024 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 0-0 HT 0-0 Madura United Madura United ENDL1
29.01.2023 Madura United Madura United 0-2 HT 0-0 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
14.08.2022 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 2-2 HT 1-1 Madura United Madura United ENDL1
28.02.2022 Madura United Madura United 1-2 HT 1-1 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya ENDL1
20.11.2021 Persebaya Surabaya Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 HT 0-0 Madura United Madura United ENDL1
POST-MATCH Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Persebaya Surabaya nicked a narrow win over Madura United 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Persebaya Surabaya as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Persebaya Surabaya had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Persebaya Surabaya and 0.67 for Madura United.

What was the final score of Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United?

Persebaya Surabaya 1-0 Madura United in the Indonesia League 1 on 20/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Persebaya Surabaya win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Persebaya Surabaya 52%, draw 24%, Madura United 25%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Persebaya Surabaya), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Persebaya Surabaya) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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