Farense 0-1 Portimonense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 3 Jan 2026

📅03/01/2026 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.72
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
22%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
3.03
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
3.59
6+ Goals
8%
14.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 31% vs market 26.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
28%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
54%
-0.7pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.5pp
22%
Away Win
21%
+1.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.1pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Farense EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Portimonense EU Bookmakers 24%
+6% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -3%
1.49/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.68
+2% / +50% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -25%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 5
383 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.0 Crosses 13.8
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Farense
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Portimonense
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.52 xG 1.36
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
255 Passes 263
70% Pass Accuracy 71%
13 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.05.2024 Farense Farense 1-3 HT 0-2 Portimonense Portimonense POR
12.01.2024 Portimonense Portimonense 1-0 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
27.04.2021 Farense Farense 1-1 HT 1-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR
05.01.2021 Portimonense Portimonense 2-0 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
04.01.2021 Portimonense Portimonense 2-0 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
30.09.2015 Farense Farense 1-2 HT 0-1 Portimonense Portimonense POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Farense
0-1
AWAY Portimonense
3.39 xG 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
27 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 1
12 Corners 4
242 Passes 229
77% Pass Accuracy 73%
36 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Farense vs Portimonense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Portimonense nicked a narrow win over Farense 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Farense at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Farense had 52% of the ball to Portimonense's 48%, shots finished 27-14, expected goals 3.39 to 1.50 — on chances, Farense could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Portimonense led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Farense and 1.83 for Portimonense.

What was the final score of Farense vs Portimonense?

Farense 0-1 Portimonense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 03/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Farense vs Portimonense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Farense win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Farense 53%, draw 24%, Portimonense 22%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Farense) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Farense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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