Tondela vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Tondela v Arouca — Team-Based Signals
Tondela vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-2
HT 2-1
Arouca
POR
2-0
HT 1-0
Tondela
POR
1-2
HT 1-1
Tondela
POR
1-2
HT 0-1
Arouca
POR
0-1
HT 0-0
Arouca
POR
1-1
HT 0-0
Tondela
POR
Tondela 3-1 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics
Tondela got the better of Arouca 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Tondela as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Tondela had 29% of the ball to Arouca's 71%, shots finished 5-11, expected goals 0.45 to 0.77.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arouca led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Tondela and 1.50 for Arouca.
What was the final score of Tondela vs Arouca?
Tondela 3-1 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 03/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Tondela vs Arouca?
Before kick-off our model rated a Tondela win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Tondela 42%, draw 27%, Arouca 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tondela), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.