AVS 0-2 Moreirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 3 Jan 2026

📅03/01/2026 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.17
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
47%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.64
Over 2.5
42%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.9
No
55%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.63
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
4.31
6+ Goals
10%
21.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.63 — our 33% vs market 31.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.56
1/2
6%
29.0
1/X
6%
14.4
X/1
9%
7.04
X/2
12%
4.76
X/X
11%
4.13
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
29%
3.03
2/X
9%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
28%
-1.2pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.6pp
47%
Away Win
43%
+3.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
57%
+0.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
43%
-0.7pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.3pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AVS EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Moreirense EU Bookmakers 48%
-5% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +16%
1.19/1.53 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.71/0.68
+11% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +82%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
301 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 81%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
14.5 Crosses 21.3
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AVS
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Moreirense
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.06 xG 1.41
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 4
240 Passes 358
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 22
25 Crosses 8
6 Yellow Cards 3
17.05.2025 AVS AVS 0-3 HT 0-2 Moreirense Moreirense POR
04.01.2025 Moreirense Moreirense 1-1 HT 1-1 AVS AVS POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AVS
0-2
AWAY Moreirense
0.30 xG 1.99
40% Ball Possession 60%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
267 Passes 441
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 17
12 Crosses 16
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH AVS vs Moreirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Moreirense got the better of AVS 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Moreirense as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, AVS had 40% of the ball to Moreirense's 60%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 0.30 to 1.99.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Moreirense led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for AVS and 2.00 for Moreirense.

What was the final score of AVS vs Moreirense?

AVS 0-2 Moreirense in the Portugal - Premier League on 03/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AVS vs Moreirense?

Before kick-off our model rated an Moreirense win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split AVS 27%, draw 26%, Moreirense 47%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Moreirense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Moreirense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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