AVS 0-3 Moreirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
1.9
Draw
30%
3.28
Away
32%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.67
Over 2.5
40%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.95
No
52%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.67
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
4.21
6+ Goals
8%
20.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.67 — our 33% vs market 30.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
2.68
1/2
7%
35.0
1/X
11%
14.0
X/1
16%
4.44
X/2
7%
7.96
X/X
14%
4.27
2/1
10%
27.5
2/2
18%
6.56
2/X
4%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
49%
-10.7pp
30%
Draw
27%
+3.0pp
32%
Away Win
24%
+7.6pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.2pp
52%
BTTS No
53%
-1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AVS EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Moreirense EU Bookmakers 28%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +12%
0.54/0.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.26
-66% / +87% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +25%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
351 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 265 · 73%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
28.0 Crosses 15.5
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AVS
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Moreirense
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.75 xG 1.62
45% Ball Possession 55%
18 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 3
261 Passes 368
76% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 10
5 Yellow Cards 3
04.01.2025 Moreirense Moreirense 1-1 HT 1-1 AVS AVS POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AVS
0-3
AWAY Moreirense
0.38 xG 1.19
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 11
3 Corners 4
218 Passes 349
78% Pass Accuracy 86%
9 Box Touches 25
26 Crosses 7
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH AVS vs Moreirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Moreirense ran out comfortable winners over AVS 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 30% / 32% — and on the day Moreirense made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, AVS had 43% of the ball to Moreirense's 57%, shots finished 9-19, expected goals 0.38 to 1.19.

What was the final score of AVS vs Moreirense?

AVS 0-3 Moreirense in the Portugal - Premier League on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AVS vs Moreirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a AVS win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split AVS 38%, draw 30%, Moreirense 32%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (AVS), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AVS) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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