Arouca 4-1 Boavista — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.0
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
25%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.97
Over 2.5
42%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
1.66
No
58%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.58
2-3 Goals
42%
1.81
4-5 Goals
19%
3.25
6+ Goals
9%
11.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.58 — our 30% vs market 22.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.79
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
9%
12.75
X/1
15%
4.94
X/2
10%
7.49
X/X
15%
4.96
2/1
7%
23.75
2/2
8%
5.33
2/X
5%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
+0.1pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.8pp
24%
Away Win
27%
-2.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
47%
+10.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
53%
-10.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
56%
-13.9pp
58%
BTTS No
44%
+13.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arouca EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Boavista EU Bookmakers 31%
+4% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +12%
1.31/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.30
-10% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
309 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 290 · 75%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
18.4 Crosses 15.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Arouca
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Boavista
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.05 xG 0.96
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 5
334 Passes 305
79% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Box Touches 15
11 Crosses 25
4 Yellow Cards 4
04.01.2025 Boavista Boavista 1-3 HT 0-1 Arouca Arouca POR
14.04.2024 Arouca Arouca 2-1 HT 2-0 Boavista Boavista POR
03.12.2023 Boavista Boavista 0-4 HT 0-3 Arouca Arouca POR
26.11.2023 Arouca Arouca 2-2 HT 1-0 Boavista Boavista POK
03.03.2023 Boavista Boavista 0-0 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
11.09.2022 Arouca Arouca 1-2 HT 1-1 Boavista Boavista POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arouca
4-1
AWAY Boavista
1.80 xG 1.71
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 21
7 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 11
339 Passes 206
81% Pass Accuracy 71%
22 Box Touches 28
11 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Arouca vs Boavista
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arouca cruised past Boavista 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Arouca as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Arouca had 58% of the ball to Boavista's 42%, shots finished 14-21, expected goals 1.80 to 1.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arouca had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Arouca and 1.00 for Boavista.

What was the final score of Arouca vs Boavista?

Arouca 4-1 Boavista in the Portugal - Premier League on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arouca vs Boavista?

Before kick-off our model rated a Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Arouca 46%, draw 29%, Boavista 24%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arouca) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arouca) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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