Boavista 1-3 Arouca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 4 Jan 2025

Boavista
1-3 HT 0-1
Arouca
📅04/01/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Boavista vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.32
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
38%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.6
Over 2.5
37%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.96
No
61%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.44
2-3 Goals
37%
1.74
4-5 Goals
17%
4.56
6+ Goals
9%
25.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.44 — our 37% vs market 33.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.82
1/2
5%
30.5
1/X
7%
14.55
X/1
8%
7.16
X/2
14%
4.44
X/X
12%
3.9
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
20%
2.97
2/X
11%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
26%
+5.3pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.7pp
38%
Away Win
45%
-7.0pp
63%
Under 2.5
59%
+4.4pp
37%
Over 2.5
41%
-4.4pp
39%
BTTS Yes
47%
-8.1pp
61%
BTTS No
53%
+8.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Boavista v Arouca — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Boavista EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Arouca EU Bookmakers 49%
-2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +41% / +41%
1.19/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.86/1.69
-14% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +93% / +46%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
297 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 79%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
21.1 Crosses 10.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.1

Boavista vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Boavista
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Arouca
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.97 xG 1.52
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
341 Passes 308
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
15 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
14.04.2024 Arouca Arouca 2-1 HT 2-0 Boavista Boavista POR
03.12.2023 Boavista Boavista 0-4 HT 0-3 Arouca Arouca POR
26.11.2023 Arouca Arouca 2-2 HT 1-0 Boavista Boavista POK
03.03.2023 Boavista Boavista 0-0 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
11.09.2022 Arouca Arouca 1-2 HT 1-1 Boavista Boavista POR
09.04.2022 Boavista Boavista 1-0 HT 1-0 Arouca Arouca POR

Boavista 1-3 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Boavista
1-3
AWAY Arouca
0.67 xG 3.37
33% Ball Possession 67%
14 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 3
136 Passes 449
56% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 15
4 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH Boavista vs Arouca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arouca saw off Boavista 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (32% / 30% / 38%) promised a tight game; Arouca found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Boavista had 33% of the ball to Arouca's 67%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 0.67 to 3.37.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Boavista and 1.50 for Arouca.

What was the final score of Boavista vs Arouca?

Boavista 1-3 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 04/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Boavista vs Arouca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Boavista 32%, draw 30%, Arouca 38%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arouca) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Arouca) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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