Benfica 1-2 Sporting Braga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 4 Jan 2025

Benfica
1-2 HT 0-2
Sporting Braga
📅04/01/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Benfica vs Sporting Braga Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.37
Draw
23%
4.62
Away
22%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.59
Over 2.5
53%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.68
No
52%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.56
2-3 Goals
40%
2.0
4-5 Goals
24%
2.54
6+ Goals
12%
5.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.63
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
19.35
X/1
20%
3.75
X/2
7%
15.8
X/X
11%
8.02
2/1
7%
20.0
2/2
9%
11.05
2/X
6%
19.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
68%
-12.9pp
23%
Draw
18%
+4.7pp
22%
Away Win
14%
+8.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
35%
+12.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
65%
-12.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-7.8pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Benfica v Sporting Braga — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 17%
+0% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -13%
2.74/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/2.29
+23% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -46%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
441 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 78%
37.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.8
22.9 Crosses 14.3
1.6 Yellow Cards 3.3

Benfica vs Sporting Braga Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Sporting Braga
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.76 xG 1.21
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
432 Passes 389
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
27 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
27.04.2024 Benfica Benfica 3-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
10.01.2024 Benfica Benfica 3-2 HT 2-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POK
17.12.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-1 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica POR
06.05.2023 Benfica Benfica 1-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
09.02.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-1 HT 1-1 Benfica Benfica POK
31.12.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 3-0 HT 2-0 Benfica Benfica POR

Benfica 1-2 Sporting Braga — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
1-2
AWAY Sporting Braga
1.65 xG 0.73
59% Ball Possession 41%
21 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
469 Passes 301
83% Pass Accuracy 76%
30 Box Touches 5
24 Crosses 2
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Sporting Braga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga squeezed past Benfica 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

This one beat our numbers. Benfica carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Benfica had 59% of the ball to Sporting Braga's 41%, shots finished 21-6, expected goals 1.65 to 0.73 — on chances, Benfica could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Benfica and 1.17 for Sporting Braga.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Sporting Braga?

Benfica 1-2 Sporting Braga in the Portugal - Premier League on 04/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Sporting Braga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Benfica 55%, draw 23%, Sporting Braga 22%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Benfica), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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