Benfica 3-1 Sporting Braga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.57
Draw
17%
4.08
Away
27%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.51
Over 2.5
57%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.55
No
47%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
5.57
2-3 Goals
32%
2.02
4-5 Goals
31%
2.64
6+ Goals
13%
6.29
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.95
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.35
X/1
12%
4.08
X/2
9%
10.7
X/X
4%
6.84
2/1 EV+ ✓
12%
19.3
2/2
11%
7.17
2/X
6%
15.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.3 — our 12% vs market 2.7%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
59%
-3.2pp
17%
Draw
21%
-3.6pp
27%
Away Win
20%
+6.7pp
43%
Under 2.5
36%
+7.2pp
57%
Over 2.5
64%
-7.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.8pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 23%
+0% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / +2%
2.15/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/2.26
+23% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -53%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
337 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 79%
32.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.5
21.0 Crosses 14.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Sporting Braga
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.62 xG 1.22
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
447 Passes 397
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
26 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
10.01.2024 Benfica Benfica 3-2 HT 2-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POK
17.12.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 0-1 HT 0-1 Benfica Benfica POR
06.05.2023 Benfica Benfica 1-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
09.02.2023 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-1 HT 1-1 Benfica Benfica POK
31.12.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 3-0 HT 2-0 Benfica Benfica POR
30.12.2022 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 3-0 HT 2-0 Benfica Benfica POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
3-1
AWAY Sporting Braga
2.49 xG 1.14
62% Ball Possession 38%
22 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 3
458 Passes 241
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
34 Box Touches 9
18 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Sporting Braga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica beat Sporting Braga 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we said in the preview, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Benfica had 62% of the ball to Sporting Braga's 38%, shots finished 22-11, expected goals 2.49 to 1.14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Benfica and 1.50 for Sporting Braga.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Sporting Braga?

Benfica 3-1 Sporting Braga in the Portugal - Premier League on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Sporting Braga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Benfica 56%, draw 17%, Sporting Braga 27%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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