Casa Pia 3-1 Chaves — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 27 Apr 2024

Casa Pia
3-1 HT 1-0
Chaves
📅27/04/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2023/2024

Casa Pia vs Chaves Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.0
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
33%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.62
Over 2.5
42%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.58
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.56
6+ Goals
8%
24.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.8
1/2
11%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.1
X/1
12%
4.27
X/2
9%
7.26
X/X
16%
4.02
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
13%
5.93
2/X
6%
14.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
46%
-7.7pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.0pp
33%
Away Win
26%
+7.8pp
58%
Under 2.5
58%
-0.1pp
42%
Over 2.5
42%
+0.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.2pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Casa Pia v Chaves — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Casa Pia EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Chaves EU Bookmakers 29%
-9% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.16/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.53
-32% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +4%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
289 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 79%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
21.1 Crosses 18.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.3

Casa Pia vs Chaves Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Casa Pia
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Chaves
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.98 xG 1.29
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
336 Passes 328
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.12.2023 Chaves Chaves 1-3 HT 1-2 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
29.04.2023 Chaves Chaves 1-0 HT 1-0 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR
13.11.2022 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-2 HT 1-0 Chaves Chaves POR
13.03.2022 Chaves Chaves 4-1 HT 1-1 Casa Pia Casa Pia POR2
23.10.2021 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-0 HT 1-0 Chaves Chaves POR2
06.04.2021 Casa Pia Casa Pia 1-2 HT 0-2 Chaves Chaves POR2

Casa Pia 3-1 Chaves — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Casa Pia
3-1
AWAY Chaves
0.81 xG 1.64
36% Ball Possession 64%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
270 Passes 506
81% Pass Accuracy 87%
28 Box Touches 16
17 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Casa Pia vs Chaves
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Casa Pia saw off Chaves 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 28% / 33%) promised a tight game; Casa Pia found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Casa Pia had 36% of the ball to Chaves's 64%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 0.81 to 1.64 — on chances, Chaves could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chaves led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Casa Pia and 1.67 for Chaves.

What was the final score of Casa Pia vs Chaves?

Casa Pia 3-1 Chaves in the Portugal - Premier League on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Casa Pia vs Chaves?

Before kick-off our model rated a Casa Pia win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Casa Pia 39%, draw 28%, Chaves 33%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Casa Pia) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Casa Pia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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