Estoril 4-0 Estrela — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 17 May 2025

📅17/05/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.47
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
36%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
12%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
16%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.2pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.4pp
36%
Away Win
36%
+0.3pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.0pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estoril EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Estrela EU Bookmakers 39%
+5% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.38/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.17
+27% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
331 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 328 · 78%
19.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
18.7 Crosses 17.1
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estoril
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Estrela
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.31 xG 1.16
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
321 Passes 275
77% Pass Accuracy 73%
19 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.01.2025 Estrela Estrela 2-4 HT 0-3 Estoril Estoril POR
04.02.2024 Estoril Estoril 1-0 HT 0-0 Estrela Estrela POR
25.08.2023 Estrela Estrela 2-1 HT 0-0 Estoril Estoril POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estoril
4-0
AWAY Estrela
2.59 xG 0.62
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
315 Passes 297
81% Pass Accuracy 79%
16 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Estoril vs Estrela
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estoril ran out comfortable winners over Estrela 4-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 26% / 36%) promised a tight game; Estoril found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Estoril had 50% of the ball to Estrela's 50%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 2.59 to 0.62.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Estoril had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Estoril and 1.33 for Estrela.

What was the final score of Estoril vs Estrela?

Estoril 4-0 Estrela in the Portugal - Premier League on 17/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estoril vs Estrela?

Before kick-off our model rated a Estoril win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Estoril 38%, draw 26%, Estrela 36%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Estoril), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Estoril) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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