Benfica 3-1 Estoril — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 3 Jan 2026

📅03/01/2026 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
78%
1.27
Draw
15%
5.28
Away
7%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.51
Over 2.5
59%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.96
No
48%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.17
2-3 Goals
40%
1.98
4-5 Goals
27%
2.66
6+ Goals
12%
6.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1.42
1/2
2%
35.0
1/X
6%
23.55
X/1
25%
3.83
X/2
2%
22.25
X/X
5%
9.03
2/1 EV+ ✗
14%
21.8
2/2
2%
19.2
2/X
4%
27.5
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.8 — our 14% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
79%
Home Win
74%
+4.1pp
15%
Draw
16%
-1.3pp
7%
Away Win
10%
-2.8pp
41%
Under 2.5
36%
+4.6pp
59%
Over 2.5
64%
-4.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.8pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Estoril EU Bookmakers 12%
-2% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -3%
2.74/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/2.56
+21% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -15%
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
495 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 76%
36.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
22.7 Crosses 12.8
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Estoril
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
2.71 xG 0.55
62% Ball Possession 38%
18 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
495 Passes 274
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
34 Box Touches 16
21 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.05.2025 Estoril Estoril 1-2 HT 0-2 Benfica Benfica POR
23.12.2024 Benfica Benfica 3-0 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
10.03.2024 Benfica Benfica 3-1 HT 2-1 Estoril Estoril POR
24.01.2024 Benfica Benfica 1-1 HT 0-1 Estoril Estoril PORLC
07.10.2023 Estoril Estoril 0-1 HT 0-0 Benfica Benfica POR
23.04.2023 Benfica Benfica 1-0 HT 1-0 Estoril Estoril POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
3-1
AWAY Estoril
2.27 xG 0.63
51% Ball Possession 49%
20 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
338 Passes 336
81% Pass Accuracy 83%
29 Box Touches 18
15 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Estoril
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Benfica got the better of Estoril 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 79%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Benfica had 51% of the ball to Estoril's 49%, shots finished 20-9, expected goals 2.27 to 0.63.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Benfica and 0.50 for Estoril.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Estoril?

Benfica 3-1 Estoril in the Portugal - Premier League on 03/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Estoril?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 79%, with the full match-result split Benfica 79%, draw 15%, Estoril 7%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Benfica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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