Estoril vs Benfica Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Estoril v Benfica — Team-Based Signals
Estoril vs Benfica Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-1
HT 0-0
Benfica
POR
1-0
HT 1-0
Estoril
POR
0-1
HT 0-0
Benfica
POK
Estoril 1-2 Benfica — Actual Match Statistics
Benfica squeezed past Estoril 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Benfica as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (56%) came in.
On the day, Estoril had 49% of the ball to Benfica's 51%, shots finished 10-10, expected goals 1.03 to 2.33 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Benfica's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Estoril and 1.67 for Benfica.
What was the final score of Estoril vs Benfica?
Estoril 1-2 Benfica in the Portugal - Premier League on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Estoril vs Benfica?
Before kick-off our model rated an Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Estoril 18%, draw 21%, Benfica 61%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Benfica), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.