Farense 2-1 Famalicao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.67
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
38%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.68
Over 2.5
43%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.73
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
4.11
6+ Goals
8%
19.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.73 — our 34% vs market 30.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
4.22
1/2
10%
31.0
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
16%
5.87
X/2
10%
5.41
X/X
12%
4.22
2/1
6%
33.0
2/2
17%
3.73
2/X
9%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
34%
+1.2pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.6pp
37%
Away Win
37%
+0.4pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+1.6pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-1.6pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.6pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Farense EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Famalicao EU Bookmakers 40%
-13% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +3%
1.22/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.38
-36% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +2%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
287 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 77%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
26.2 Crosses 16.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Farense
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Famalicao
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.96 xG 1.10
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 8
193 Passes 401
71% Pass Accuracy 83%
16 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 3
21.12.2024 Famalicao Famalicao 1-2 HT 0-1 Farense Farense POR
10.02.2024 Farense Farense 1-1 HT 0-1 Famalicao Famalicao POR
02.09.2023 Famalicao Famalicao 1-0 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
27.02.2021 Famalicao Famalicao 0-0 HT 0-0 Farense Farense POR
18.10.2020 Farense Farense 3-3 HT 2-0 Famalicao Famalicao POR
25.10.2015 Famalicao Famalicao 2-1 HT 1-0 Farense Farense POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Farense
2-1
AWAY Famalicao
1.78 xG 0.94
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 10
205 Passes 239
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
24 Box Touches 12
21 Crosses 19
7 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Farense vs Famalicao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Farense edged past Famalicao 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 27% / 37%) promised a tight game; Farense found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Farense had 47% of the ball to Famalicao's 53%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 1.78 to 0.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Famalicao led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Farense and 1.33 for Famalicao.

What was the final score of Farense vs Famalicao?

Farense 2-1 Famalicao in the Portugal - Premier League on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Farense vs Famalicao?

Before kick-off our model rated an Famalicao win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Farense 35%, draw 27%, Famalicao 37%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Famalicao) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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