Nacional 1-2 Vitoria Guimaraes — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 3 May 2025

Nacional
1-2 HT 0-1
Vitoria Guimaraes
📅03/05/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Portugal - Premier League – 2024/2025

Nacional vs Vitoria Guimaraes Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.46
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
38%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.9
Over 2.5
50%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.26
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.48
6+ Goals
9%
13.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.26 — our 30% vs market 24.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
6.02
1/2
8%
24.2
1/X
7%
14.75
X/1
11%
7.87
X/2
11%
4.57
X/X
14%
4.91
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
19%
2.61
2/X
9%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
26%
+7.2pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.0pp
38%
Away Win
49%
-11.2pp
50%
Under 2.5
49%
+1.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
51%
-1.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.2pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nacional v Vitoria Guimaraes — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 53%
+10% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -8%
0.99/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.52/0.80
+37% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -13%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
282 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 78%
13.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.2
19.8 Crosses 24.4
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.7

Nacional vs Vitoria Guimaraes Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.93 xG 1.19
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
282 Passes 337
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
13 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
23.12.2024 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-2 HT 1-1 Nacional Nacional POR
26.04.2021 Nacional Nacional 1-0 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
21.01.2021 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 3-1 HT 1-1 Nacional Nacional POR
05.05.2019 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 2-2 HT 1-0 Nacional Nacional POR
02.01.2019 Nacional Nacional 1-0 HT 1-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
31.03.2017 Nacional Nacional 1-2 HT 0-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR

Nacional 1-2 Vitoria Guimaraes — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional
1-2
AWAY Vitoria Guimaraes
1.19 xG 0.94
47% Ball Possession 53%
17 Total Shots 10
1 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
252 Passes 312
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 14
26 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nacional vs Vitoria Guimaraes
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vitoria Guimaraes nicked a narrow win over Nacional 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (33% / 30% / 38%) promised a tight game; Vitoria Guimaraes found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Nacional had 47% of the ball to Vitoria Guimaraes's 53%, shots finished 17-10, expected goals 1.19 to 0.94.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Nacional and 1.50 for Vitoria Guimaraes.

What was the final score of Nacional vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Nacional 1-2 Vitoria Guimaraes in the Portugal - Premier League on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional vs Vitoria Guimaraes?

Before kick-off our model rated an Vitoria Guimaraes win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Nacional 33%, draw 30%, Vitoria Guimaraes 38%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Vitoria Guimaraes) ✗ BTTS No
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