Estrela 3-3 Sporting Braga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 3 Jan 2026

📅03/01/2026 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
21%
4.04
Draw
22%
3.54
Away
57%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.74
Over 2.5
45%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.96
No
57%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.81
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
4.0
6+ Goals
10%
18.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.81 — our 31% vs market 29.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
7.87
1/2
8%
25.5
1/X
7%
16.9
X/1
6%
9.25
X/2
19%
4.12
X/X
8%
4.7
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
30%
2.31
2/X
6%
15.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
21%
Home Win
22%
-0.3pp
21%
Draw
25%
-3.6pp
57%
Away Win
54%
+3.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
54%
+1.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
46%
-1.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.1pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Estrela EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 57%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -5%
0.92/1.50 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/1.15
-11% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / +18%
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
278 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 79%
14.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.7
14.6 Crosses 20.1
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Estrela
0W-1D-3L
AWAY Sporting Braga
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 2.25
0.90 xG 2.16
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 8
219 Passes 428
73% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 34
14 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.01.2025 Estrela Estrela 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
11.08.2024 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-1 HT 0-0 Estrela Estrela POR
02.03.2024 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 3-0 HT 0-0 Estrela Estrela POR
28.09.2023 Estrela Estrela 2-4 HT 0-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Estrela
3-3
AWAY Sporting Braga
1.05 xG 3.27
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
278 Passes 429
76% Pass Accuracy 86%
11 Box Touches 27
13 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Estrela vs Sporting Braga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Estrela and Sporting Braga couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Sporting Braga carried 57% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Estrela had 42% of the ball to Sporting Braga's 58%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 1.05 to 3.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Sporting Braga led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Estrela and 2.25 for Sporting Braga.

What was the final score of Estrela vs Sporting Braga?

Estrela 3-3 Sporting Braga in the Portugal - Premier League on 03/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Estrela vs Sporting Braga?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Estrela 21%, draw 21%, Sporting Braga 57%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Braga) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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