Warrington Town 2-1 Chorley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 3 Feb 2024

📅03/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.47
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
34%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under
50%
1.95
Over
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.66
No Pick
54%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1
31%
3.56
2-3
37%
1.8
4-5
25%
3.33
6+
7%
12.2
Value flag · 0-1 at 3.56 — our 31% vs market 22.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
16%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
13%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
37%
+6.6pp
22%
Draw
26%
-4.1pp
34%
Away Win
37%
-2.5pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.3pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.3pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.8pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Warrington Town EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Chorley EU Bookmakers 40%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
2.03/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.44
+51% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -8%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
248 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Warrington Town
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Chorley
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 2
0 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 0
19.08.2023 Chorley Chorley 0-1 HT 0-1 Warrington Town Warrington Town İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Warrington Town
2-1
AWAY Chorley
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 9
6 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Warrington Town vs Chorley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Warrington Town squeezed past Chorley 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Warrington Town as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Warrington Town had 52% of the ball to Chorley's 48%, shots finished 17-19.

What was the final score of Warrington Town vs Chorley?

Warrington Town 2-1 Chorley in the England - Conference on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Warrington Town vs Chorley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Warrington Town win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Warrington Town 43%, draw 22%, Chorley 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Warrington Town) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Warrington Town) ✗ BTTS No
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