Llerenense 0-1 Navalcarnero — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 3 Feb 2024

📅03/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.45
Over 2.5
35%
2.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.19
No
61%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
14%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
41%
-0.8pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.1pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.7pp
65%
Under 2.5
65%
-0.1pp
35%
Over 2.5
35%
+0.1pp
39%
BTTS Yes
42%
-2.2pp
61%
BTTS No
58%
+2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Llerenense EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Navalcarnero EU Bookmakers 33%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / -5%
0.81/0.41 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/0.90
-32% / +131% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +22%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
358 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 198 · 65%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Llerenense
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Navalcarnero
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
41% Ball Possession 59%
6 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 9
7 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2023 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero 1-0 HT 0-0 Llerenense Llerenense İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Llerenense
0-1
AWAY Navalcarnero
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Llerenense vs Navalcarnero
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Navalcarnero nicked a narrow win over Llerenense 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (40% / 30% / 30%) promised a tight game; Navalcarnero found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Llerenense had 57% of the ball to Navalcarnero's 43%, shots finished 14-5.

What was the final score of Llerenense vs Navalcarnero?

Llerenense 0-1 Navalcarnero in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Llerenense vs Navalcarnero?

Before kick-off our model rated a Llerenense win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Llerenense 40%, draw 30%, Navalcarnero 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Llerenense) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Llerenense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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