Nürnberg 2-2 Osnabrück — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 3 Feb 2024

Nürnberg
2-2 HT 1-1
Osnabrück
📅03/02/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✓
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Nürnberg vs Osnabrück Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
27%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.15
Over 2.5
53%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.56
No
47%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.27
2-3 Goals
43%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
2.97
6+ Goals
11%
8.99
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.68
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
7%
12.65
X/1
16%
4.76
X/2
10%
7.28
X/X
11%
5.23
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.6
2/2
11%
4.86
2/X
9%
13.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.6 — our 9% vs market 2.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
+0.1pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.0pp
27%
Away Win
28%
-1.1pp
47%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.1pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.4pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nürnberg v Osnabrück — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nürnberg EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Osnabrück EU Bookmakers 32%
-4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -2%
1.23/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/2.02
-20% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / -12%
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
323 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 76%
22.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
18.2 Crosses 18.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

Nürnberg vs Osnabrück Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nürnberg
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Osnabrück
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.44 xG 0.99
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 2
364 Passes 295
80% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 14
20 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
20.08.2023 Osnabrück Osnabrück 2-3 HT 0-1 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
14.03.2021 Nürnberg Nürnberg 1-1 HT 0-0 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL2
23.11.2020 Osnabrück Osnabrück 1-4 HT 0-3 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
08.02.2020 Osnabrück Osnabrück 0-1 HT 0-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
25.08.2019 Nürnberg Nürnberg 1-0 HT 0-0 Osnabrück Osnabrück AL2
25.10.2017 Osnabrück Osnabrück 2-3 HT 1-1 Nürnberg Nürnberg AFK

Nürnberg 2-2 Osnabrück — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nürnberg
2-2
AWAY Osnabrück
1.27 xG 2.50
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
267 Passes 362
80% Pass Accuracy 82%
28 Box Touches 37
15 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nürnberg vs Osnabrück
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nürnberg and Osnabrück couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Nürnberg at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Nürnberg had 43% of the ball to Osnabrück's 57%, shots finished 14-18, expected goals 1.27 to 2.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nürnberg had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Nürnberg and 1.00 for Osnabrück.

What was the final score of Nürnberg vs Osnabrück?

Nürnberg 2-2 Osnabrück in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nürnberg vs Osnabrück?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nürnberg win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Nürnberg 46%, draw 27%, Osnabrück 27%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Nürnberg) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nürnberg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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