Brisbane Roar (K) 1-2 Melbourne Victory (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - W-League, 3 Feb 2024

Brisbane Roar (K)
1-2 HT 1-1
Melbourne Victory (K)
📅03/02/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✓
Australia - W-League – 2023/2024

Brisbane Roar (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.33
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
30%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.07
Over 2.5
53%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.6
No
49%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
10%
X/1
6%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
3%
2/2
19%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
39%
+3.5pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.4pp
30%
Away Win
36%
-5.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.9pp
49%
BTTS No
42%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brisbane Roar (K) v Melbourne Victory (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brisbane Roar (K) EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne Victory (K) EU Bookmakers 40%
+42% / +42% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+52% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
296 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 77%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
20.0 Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Brisbane Roar (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K) Head-to-Head — Last 4 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brisbane Roar (K)
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Melbourne Victory (K)
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
1.59 xG 1.40
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
298 Passes 234
73% Pass Accuracy 68%
29 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
21.12.2019 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) 0-0 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar (K) Brisbane Roar (K) AVUSTW
21.11.2019 Brisbane Roar (K) Brisbane Roar (K) 2-3 HT 1-2 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) AVUSTW
16.12.2018 Brisbane Roar (K) Brisbane Roar (K) 4-3 HT 1-1 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) AVUSTW
05.01.2018 Brisbane Roar (K) Brisbane Roar (K) 2-1 HT 0-1 Melbourne Victory (K) Melbourne Victory (K) AVUSTW

Brisbane Roar (K) 1-2 Melbourne Victory (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brisbane Roar (K)
1-2
AWAY Melbourne Victory (K)
1.82 xG 1.91
46% Ball Possession 54%
15 Total Shots 20
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
266 Passes 323
73% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Brisbane Roar (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melbourne Victory (K) edged past Brisbane Roar (K) 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Brisbane Roar (K) at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Brisbane Roar (K) had 46% of the ball to Melbourne Victory (K)'s 54%, shots finished 15-20, expected goals 1.82 to 1.91.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Brisbane Roar (K) had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Brisbane Roar (K) and 1.75 for Melbourne Victory (K).

What was the final score of Brisbane Roar (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K)?

Brisbane Roar (K) 1-2 Melbourne Victory (K) in the Australia - W-League on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brisbane Roar (K) vs Melbourne Victory (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Brisbane Roar (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Brisbane Roar (K) 42%, draw 28%, Melbourne Victory (K) 30%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Brisbane Roar (K)) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Brisbane Roar (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AVUSTW More Australia - W-League
3 Feb 2024
06:15 Western United (K) vs Central Coast Mariners (K) Analysis →
09:00 Adelaide United (K) vs W. Sydney Wanderers (K) Analysis →
11:00 Sydney (K) vs Perth Glory (K) Analysis →