Dunkerque 1-0 Saint-Etienne — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 2, 3 Feb 2024

📅03/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.99
Draw
29%
3.28
Away
43%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.8
Over 2.5
40%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.75
No
57%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
3.13
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
3.71
6+ Goals
8%
15.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.13 — our 34% vs market 26.1%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.83
1/2
5%
26.5
1/X
10%
13.45
X/1
11%
6.59
X/2
18%
4.7
X/X
13%
4.43
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
21%
2.99
2/X
5%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
30%
-1.5pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.6pp
43%
Away Win
43%
-0.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
52%
+8.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
48%
-8.2pp
43%
BTTS Yes
53%
-10.1pp
57%
BTTS No
47%
+10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dunkerque EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Saint-Etienne EU Bookmakers 48%
-2% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +4%
0.91/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.65/1.44
-24% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +2%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
288 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 367 · 79%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.1
19.8 Crosses 17.1
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dunkerque
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Saint-Etienne
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.96 xG 1.96
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 9
393 Passes 410
83% Pass Accuracy 87%
31 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 1
04.10.2023 Saint-Etienne Saint-Etienne 2-0 HT 0-0 Dunkerque Dunkerque FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dunkerque
1-0
AWAY Saint-Etienne
0.85 xG 0.77
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 4
272 Passes 339
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
10 Box Touches 24
13 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Dunkerque vs Saint-Etienne
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dunkerque squeezed past Saint-Etienne 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Saint-Etienne at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Dunkerque had 45% of the ball to Saint-Etienne's 55%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 0.85 to 0.77.

What was the final score of Dunkerque vs Saint-Etienne?

Dunkerque 1-0 Saint-Etienne in the France - Ligue 2 on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dunkerque vs Saint-Etienne?

Before kick-off our model rated an Saint-Etienne win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Dunkerque 28%, draw 28%, Saint-Etienne 43%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Saint-Etienne) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Saint-Etienne) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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