Caersws 1-2 Holywell — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 3 Feb 2024

📅03/02/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
5.4
Draw
16%
4.62
Away
60%
1.41
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
28%
2.89
Over 2.5
72%
1.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.6
No
42%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
12%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
31%
6+ Goals
19%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
12%
1/X
6%
X/1
5%
X/2
14%
X/X
5%
2/1
5%
2/2
34%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
15%
+8.3pp
16%
Draw
18%
-2.2pp
60%
Away Win
66%
-5.9pp
28%
Under 2.5
31%
-3.5pp
72%
Over 2.5
69%
+3.5pp
58%
BTTS Yes
58%
-0.7pp
42%
BTTS No
42%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caersws EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Holywell EU Bookmakers 71%
+27% / +27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +16% / +15%
3.00/3.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.52/0.38
+150% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% / +150%
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
299 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 457 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caersws
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Holywell
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 4.50
30.09.2023 Holywell Holywell 3-1 HT 1-1 Caersws Caersws GALFAW
06.08.2022 Caersws Caersws 1-6 HT 0-4 Holywell Holywell GALLK
POST-MATCH Caersws vs Holywell
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Holywell nicked a narrow win over Caersws 2-1 away from home.

As we said in the preview, our model had Holywell as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (72%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Holywell led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Caersws and 4.50 for Holywell.

What was the final score of Caersws vs Holywell?

Caersws 1-2 Holywell in the Wales - FAW Championship on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caersws vs Holywell?

Before kick-off our model rated an Holywell win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Caersws 24%, draw 16%, Holywell 60%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Holywell), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Holywell) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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