Kocaelispor 1-0 Adanaspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 3 Feb 2024

Kocaelispor
1-0 HT 0-0
Adanaspor
📅03/02/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Turkey - 1st Division – 2023/2024

Kocaelispor vs Adanaspor Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.47
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
21%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.9
Over 2.5
52%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.06
No
50%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.27
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.56
6+ Goals
11%
14.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.56 — our 25% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
35%
1.8
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
7%
18.3
X/1
12%
3.46
X/2
8%
13.25
X/X
9%
5.52
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
24.7
2/2
6%
11.3
2/X
6%
19.4
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.7 — our 10% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
64%
-6.2pp
22%
Draw
22%
-0.1pp
21%
Away Win
14%
+6.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
49%
-1.1pp
52%
Over 2.5
51%
+1.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+5.0pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Kocaelispor v Adanaspor — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kocaelispor EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Adanaspor EU Bookmakers 17%
-12% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.42/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.65
-9% / -46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +0%
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
404 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 74%
23.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.7
21.9 Crosses 14.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.5

Kocaelispor vs Adanaspor Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kocaelispor
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Adanaspor
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.38 xG 1.41
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 6
372 Passes 359
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 17
10 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.09.2023 Adanaspor Adanaspor 0-2 HT 0-1 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
21.05.2022 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 4-1 HT 1-0 Adanaspor Adanaspor T1L
24.12.2021 Adanaspor Adanaspor 2-0 HT 1-0 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
01.12.2021 Adanaspor Adanaspor 1-2 HT 0-2 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor TÜK
07.02.2010 Adanaspor Adanaspor 1-0 HT 0-0 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor T1L
14.09.2009 Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 0-0 HT 0-0 Adanaspor Adanaspor T1L

Kocaelispor 1-0 Adanaspor — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kocaelispor
1-0
AWAY Adanaspor
1.92 xG 0.24
59% Ball Possession 41%
16 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 4
377 Passes 238
77% Pass Accuracy 71%
25 Box Touches 11
23 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kocaelispor vs Adanaspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kocaelispor nicked a narrow win over Adanaspor 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Kocaelispor as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Kocaelispor had 59% of the ball to Adanaspor's 41%, shots finished 16-7, expected goals 1.92 to 0.24 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Kocaelispor's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Kocaelispor had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Kocaelispor and 0.83 for Adanaspor.

What was the final score of Kocaelispor vs Adanaspor?

Kocaelispor 1-0 Adanaspor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kocaelispor vs Adanaspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Kocaelispor win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Kocaelispor 57%, draw 22%, Adanaspor 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Kocaelispor) — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Kocaelispor) ✗ Over 2.5
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