Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Betis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 3 Mar 2024

Atletico Madrid
2-1 HT 2-0
Real Betis
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Spain - Primera Liga – 2023/2024

Atletico Madrid vs Real Betis Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.53
Draw
26%
3.94
Away
24%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.95
Over 2.5
47%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.48
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
22%
3.42
6+ Goals
10%
12.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.48 — our 27% vs market 23.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1.91
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
7%
17.05
X/1
20%
3.63
X/2
9%
11.65
X/X
11%
5.59
2/1
8%
23.15
2/2
11%
9.48
2/X
8%
17.9
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
61%
-11.1pp
26%
Draw
22%
+3.3pp
24%
Away Win
17%
+7.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+5.4pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-5.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.2pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atletico Madrid v Real Betis — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Betis EU Bookmakers 20%
+4% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +36%
1.76/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.50
+14% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +24%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
360 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
28.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
17.6 Crosses 13.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7

Atletico Madrid vs Real Betis Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Madrid
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Real Betis
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.57 xG 0.85
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
372 Passes 456
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
22 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
20.08.2023 Real Betis Real Betis 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
02.04.2023 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1-0 HT 0-0 Real Betis Real Betis İS1
23.10.2022 Real Betis Real Betis 1-2 HT 0-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
06.03.2022 Real Betis Real Betis 1-3 HT 1-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1
31.10.2021 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 3-0 HT 1-0 Real Betis Real Betis İS1
11.04.2021 Real Betis Real Betis 1-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid İS1

Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Betis — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Madrid
2-1
AWAY Real Betis
3.04 xG 0.58
43% Ball Possession 57%
17 Total Shots 12
12 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
358 Passes 497
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
32 Box Touches 23
13 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atletico Madrid vs Real Betis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Madrid nicked a narrow win over Real Betis 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Atletico Madrid as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Atletico Madrid had 43% of the ball to Real Betis's 57%, shots finished 17-12, expected goals 3.04 to 0.58 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Atletico Madrid's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Madrid had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.50 for Real Betis.

What was the final score of Atletico Madrid vs Real Betis?

Atletico Madrid 2-1 Real Betis in the Spain - Primera Liga on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Madrid vs Real Betis?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Atletico Madrid 50%, draw 26%, Real Betis 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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