Villarreal 5-1 Granada — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 3 Mar 2024

📅03/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.15
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
3.04
6+ Goals
11%
9.52
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.15 — our 25% vs market 19.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.25
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.7
X/1
19%
4.25
X/2
9%
9.13
X/X
11%
5.42
2/1
6%
21.85
2/2
10%
6.52
2/X
7%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
53%
-2.7pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.0pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+1.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.7pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.7pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.6pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Villarreal EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Granada EU Bookmakers 26%
-7% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +8%
1.82/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.61
+0% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +61% / -18%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
387 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 75%
28.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
18.8 Crosses 15.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Villarreal
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Granada
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.37 xG 1.21
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
407 Passes 250
83% Pass Accuracy 74%
23 Box Touches 21
11 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 2
30.10.2023 Granada Granada 2-3 HT 2-3 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
19.02.2022 Granada Granada 1-4 HT 0-2 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
16.08.2021 Villarreal Villarreal 0-0 HT 0-0 Granada Granada İS1
03.04.2021 Granada Granada 0-3 HT 0-2 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
20.01.2021 Villarreal Villarreal 2-2 HT 1-1 Granada Granada İS1
19.06.2020 Granada Granada 0-1 HT 0-1 Villarreal Villarreal İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Villarreal
5-1
AWAY Granada
2.06 xG 0.51
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 9
10 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
367 Passes 391
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 26
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Villarreal vs Granada
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Villarreal swept aside Granada 5-1. Half-time: 3-0. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Villarreal as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Villarreal had 48% of the ball to Granada's 52%, shots finished 16-9, expected goals 2.06 to 0.51.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Villarreal had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Villarreal and 0.83 for Granada.

What was the final score of Villarreal vs Granada?

Villarreal 5-1 Granada in the Spain - Primera Liga on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Villarreal vs Granada?

Before kick-off our model rated a Villarreal win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Villarreal 50%, draw 25%, Granada 25%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Villarreal), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Villarreal) ✓ BTTS Yes
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