03/03/2024
·
16:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
1-0
Orvietana Calcio vs Sangiovannese Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
Over
43%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Total Goals
0-1
23%
2-3
47%
4-5
24%
6+
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
9%
X/X
18%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
9%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
38%
Home Win
38%
32%
Draw
24%
30%
Away Win
38%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Orvietana Calcio v Sangiovannese — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Orvietana Calcio
The Market 42%
Head to Head
AWAY
Sangiovannese
The Market 42%
+23% /
+23%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
-14%
/
+108%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
49%
Ball Possession
51%
11
Total Shots
12
5
Shots on Target
5
5
Corners
6
398 · 81%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
253 · 75%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Orvietana Calcio vs Sangiovannese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Sangiovannese squeezed past Orvietana Calcio 1-0 away from home.
Our pre-match split (38% / 32% / 30%) promised a tight game; Sangiovannese found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), and that read landed as well.
What was the final score of Orvietana Calcio vs Sangiovannese?
Orvietana Calcio 0-1 Sangiovannese in the Italy - Serie D on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Orvietana Calcio vs Sangiovannese?
Before kick-off our model rated a Orvietana Calcio win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Orvietana Calcio 38%, draw 32%, Sangiovannese 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Orvietana Calcio), BTTS Yes went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Orvietana Calcio)
✓ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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İTD
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3 Mar 2024