Atlas 1-5 Club America — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 3 Mar 2024

Atlas
1-5 HT 1-2
Club America
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒06:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Atlas vs Club America Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.46
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
49%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.16
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.7
6+ Goals
9%
15.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 29% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
7%
X/2
19%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
21%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
25%
+0.9pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.3pp
49%
Away Win
49%
+0.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.8pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Atlas v Club America — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlas EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Club America EU Bookmakers 53%
-1% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +12%
1.02/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.70/1.06
-1% / +64% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / -17%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
262 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 80%
16.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.3
14.9 Crosses 20.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.0

Atlas vs Club America Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlas
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Club America
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.53 xG 1.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 5
253 Passes 345
73% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 21
13 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
21.08.2023 Club America Club America 1-1 HT 1-1 Atlas Atlas MEK
26.02.2023 Atlas Atlas 2-2 HT 1-2 Club America Club America MEK
03.07.2022 Club America Club America 0-0 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
23.01.2022 Club America Club America 0-2 HT 0-0 Atlas Atlas MEK
16.08.2021 Atlas Atlas 0-1 HT 0-0 Club America Club America MEK
21.02.2021 Atlas Atlas 3-0 HT 0-0 Club America Club America MEK

Atlas 1-5 Club America — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlas
1-5
AWAY Club America
1.05 xG 5.53
40% Ball Possession 60%
6 Total Shots 25
1 Shots on Target 13
1 Corners 7
329 Passes 528
81% Pass Accuracy 88%
6 Box Touches 49
9 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Atlas vs Club America
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Club America cruised past Atlas 5-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Club America as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Atlas had 40% of the ball to Club America's 60%, shots finished 6-25, expected goals 1.05 to 5.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atlas had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Atlas and 0.67 for Club America.

What was the final score of Atlas vs Club America?

Atlas 1-5 Club America in the Mexico - Primera on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlas vs Club America?

Before kick-off our model rated an Club America win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Atlas 26%, draw 25%, Club America 49%. The final score 1-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Club America) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Club America) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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