Cruz Azul 3-0 Guadalajara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 3 Mar 2024

Cruz Azul
3-0 HT 3-0
Guadalajara
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.86
Draw
31%
3.54
Away
26%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.97
Over 2.5
45%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.7
No
50%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.64
2-3 Goals
44%
1.81
4-5 Goals
19%
3.32
6+ Goals
9%
11.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.64 — our 28% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
50%
-7.1pp
31%
Draw
25%
+6.1pp
26%
Away Win
25%
+1.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
47%
+8.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
53%
-8.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.1pp
50%
BTTS No
45%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cruz Azul v Guadalajara — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cruz Azul EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Guadalajara EU Bookmakers 29%
-3% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
1.59/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.36
-19% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +24%
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
309 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 287 · 75%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
20.1 Crosses 15.2
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.4

Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cruz Azul
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Guadalajara
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.98 xG 0.83
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
349 Passes 339
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.11.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-0 HT 0-0 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
23.04.2023 Guadalajara Guadalajara 2-1 HT 0-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
02.10.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 2-1 HT 1-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
17.04.2022 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 0-1 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK
24.10.2021 Guadalajara Guadalajara 1-1 HT 0-1 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul MEK
11.04.2021 Cruz Azul Cruz Azul 1-0 HT 0-0 Guadalajara Guadalajara MEK

Cruz Azul 3-0 Guadalajara — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cruz Azul
3-0
AWAY Guadalajara
1.17 xG 0.27
64% Ball Possession 36%
9 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 5
502 Passes 244
85% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Box Touches 15
12 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruz Azul swept aside Guadalajara 3-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Cruz Azul as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cruz Azul had 64% of the ball to Guadalajara's 36%, shots finished 9-7, expected goals 1.17 to 0.27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Guadalajara led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Cruz Azul and 1.00 for Guadalajara.

What was the final score of Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara?

Cruz Azul 3-0 Guadalajara in the Mexico - Primera on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cruz Azul vs Guadalajara?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cruz Azul win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Cruz Azul 43%, draw 31%, Guadalajara 26%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruz Azul) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cruz Azul) ✗ Under 2.5
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