Pachuca 3-2 FC Juarez — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 3 Mar 2024

📅03/03/2024 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.49
Draw
26%
4.19
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.29
Over 2.5
48%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.7
No
53%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.68
2-3 Goals
40%
1.91
4-5 Goals
21%
2.85
6+ Goals
11%
7.96
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.68 — our 28% vs market 16.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
20%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
63%
-11.4pp
26%
Draw
21%
+5.5pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+5.9pp
52%
Under 2.5
40%
+12.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
60%
-12.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
55%
-7.9pp
53%
BTTS No
45%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pachuca EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Juarez EU Bookmakers 20%
+2% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -4%
2.04/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.52
+13% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +1%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
368 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 253 · 75%
26.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.8
23.0 Crosses 15.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pachuca
3W-2D-1L
AWAY FC Juarez
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.16 xG 0.90
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
355 Passes 234
81% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 13
24 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.10.2023 FC Juarez FC Juarez 0-1 HT 0-0 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
23.01.2023 Pachuca Pachuca 4-1 HT 1-0 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
15.09.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 2-1 HT 2-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
16.04.2022 FC Juarez FC Juarez 1-2 HT 1-1 Pachuca Pachuca MEK
25.10.2021 Pachuca Pachuca 1-1 HT 0-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
12.01.2021 Pachuca Pachuca 1-1 HT 0-1 FC Juarez FC Juarez MEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pachuca
3-2
AWAY FC Juarez
0.94 xG 0.55
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 18
8 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
349 Passes 315
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 14
12 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Pachuca vs FC Juarez
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pachuca nicked a narrow win over FC Juarez 3-2. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Pachuca as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Pachuca had 52% of the ball to FC Juarez's 48%, shots finished 14-18, expected goals 0.94 to 0.55.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pachuca had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Pachuca and 1.00 for FC Juarez.

What was the final score of Pachuca vs FC Juarez?

Pachuca 3-2 FC Juarez in the Mexico - Primera on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pachuca vs FC Juarez?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pachuca win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Pachuca 51%, draw 26%, FC Juarez 22%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pachuca) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pachuca) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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